In water resources, there is a long tradition of utilization of methods to address hydrological and economic uncertainty. Less frequently considered, however, is how uncertainty rooted in political factors such as power asymmetry, the strength of institutions, and the interests of stakeholders, contributes to decision-making. This paper explores political uncertainty and its interaction with more routinely considered forms of uncertainty in international river basins. Using the example of the controversies surrounding major new infrastructure projects in the Eastern Nile Basin, we show that political uncertainty may play a key role in shaping the decisions of individual riparian countries about how to proceed with water resources development. Specifically, we consider whether uncertainty over the prospect of future cooperation might help explain why seemingly optimal economic outcomes that require cooperation (due to interconnectedness) remain elusive. We conclude with reflections on other dimensions of the water resources planning problem – climate change, changes in regional development matters, and preferences – that similarly require a framework that accounts for political uncertainty.
Related Resources
-
What/who is still missing in International Relations scholarship? Situating Africa as an agent in IR theorising
Isaac Odoom. "What/who is still missing in International Relations scholarship? Situating Africa as an agent in IR theorising." Third World Quarterly (2017) 38:1, pages 42-60.
-
Another decolonial approach is possible: international studies in an antiblack world
Farai Chipato and David Chandler. "Another decolonial approach is possible: international studies in an antiblack world." Third World Quarterly (2022) 43:7, pages 1783-1797.